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The construction sector is one of the largest seasonal

The construction sector is one of the largest seasonal employment providers in India next only to agriculture, creating about 50 million jobs either directly or indirectly. For the first seven months of 2015, tractor sales fell by 19.83 in April-October 2014, registering a marginal growth of 3.4 per cent allowing it to crow about outpacing China. Yet the government seems focused on attracting investment, when the problem is to generate demand.64 per cent of total advances. That’s why most economists, businessmen and politicians maintain that moderate inflation levels are needed to drive consumption, as higher levels of spending are crucial for economic growth. But if that were so, bank credit to industry too should be keeping pace, which it is not.11 lakh units in same period a year ago.The writer, a policy analyst studying economic and security issues, held senior positions in government and industry.2 per cent, and since inflation (wholesale price index) has become negative 2.In the real world, nominal growth matters much more than the inflation-adjusted real growth.Clearly the sector needs a more liberal credit policy to encourage families to invest in property. Until October 2015, tractor sales continued to fall for the 13th consecutive month.For instance, Mumbai has a projected shortage of two million homes, but is unable to sell half its inventory pile-up because of unaffordable prices.4 per cent.As it is, the GDP growth rate was tweaked a bit by this government in February 2015, to put India on a higher trajectory, giving itself an added 2.8 per cent.This is the season of celebration.The US Federal Reserve typically targets an annual rate of inflation for the country, believing that a slowly increasing price level keeps businesses profitable and prevents consumers from waiting for lower prices.25 million vehicles including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, three wheelers and two wheelers in April-October 2015 as against 13. Investment — domestic and foreign — is not the issue. Unsold inventory in the NCR rose 12. The sharp decline in direct tax collections is a sign of this.4 per cent in the previous three months, according to domestic rating agency ICRA.2 per cent.The demand projections promise a healthy outlook for this sector. If this were done in the last year of the Manmohan Singh government, the growth would have been a good-looking 6. He also specialises in the Chinese economy. For much of the past decade, India’s nominal GDP growth was in the 10-15 per cent range and corporate profitability growth was also in that range.

In the first half of 2014-15 nominal GVA was at 13. The shortage of urban houses stood at 18.9 per cent.1 million. The sector is mostly unorganised and more than 80 per cent of employment in building and construction sector is minimally skilled workforce. Most economists believe the primary function of inflation is to prevent deflation.2 per cent.33 lakh cars in November compared to 2.5 per cent. Whether it is cars and motorbikes, or homes.9 per cent instead of the dismal 4.5 per cent.2 per cent growth as a bonus. Consequently, banks’ credit growth dropped to a multi-year low of 8.3 per cent increase in manufacturing in the period.The car companies have dispatched about 2. Periods of optimism and buoyancy are when prices are rising, sales are rising and profits are rising.7 per cent. But inflation was almost 5 per cent last year and it is a negative 2 per cent this year.2 per cent, the real GDP is at 7. The country’s largest property market, the automotive interior and exterior molds national capital region (NCR), has a pile-up of inventory that would take close to 78 months to clear at the current pace of sales. The problem with the present year is that nominal GDP — the GDP before inflation — has fallen to a low of 5. But as they say the proof of the pudding is in the eating. But there seems to be less reason for cheer. Hence, nominal GDP often appears higher than real GDP.6 per cent for 10 years till 2022, when it will reach 34. And the people are not biting.To many who watch the economy closely, this year is significant because the nominal gross GDP growth rate has fallen to a 10-year low of 5. We have deflation now.However, developers in the country’s property markets have been struggling with slow sales, high unsold inventory, delayed construction and stalled projects.2 per cent.While most corporates are reporting flattening sales and falling profits, the government is crowing from the rooftops that real GDP is growing at 7.

Ironically, the data comes a day after the Central Statistics Office released the GDP data for the September quarter that showed a marked 9.07 per cent year-on-year.Since inflation used to be in the 4-8 per cent range, real GDP was in the 6-9 per cent range. This deflation has been primarily caused by the global collapse of commodity prices. According to Union finance minister Arun Jaitley, gross NPA’s of state-run banks rose 25.14 lakh crore in September 2015, constituting 5.2 per cent. The main difference between nominal and real GDP is that the latter is adjusted for inflation.Gross non-performing assets (NPA) of banks grew to 4. In the first half of 2015-16 nominal GVA is 6. Of this, credit to industry declined to 4.The automotive and construction sectors are the bellwethers of economic prosperity. India and the world’s largest two-wheeler maker, Hero MotoCorp, posted near flat sales, while at its nearest rival, Honda motorcycle and scooter, domestic sales fell nearly 12 per cent. Home sales in Mumbai dipped 9 per cent to 28,446 units and new launches dropped 47 per cent to 18,887 units. Rising inventory levels in a country where housing shortage is such a critical issue indicates that the supply that is available is unaffordable to many. All this implies some inflation.8 million units in 2012 and it is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 6. India adds one million people to its workforce every month and the growth of the construction sector is imperative to economic well-being, both because of the size of employment and the huge absorption of unskilled labour. There is mixed news from the automotive sector. It just means that in the year and a half since the United Progressive Alliance went out, the GDP has grown a mere 0.Nominal gross value added (GVA) is the measure of the value of goods and services produced in an area, industry or sector of an economy. But the real indicator of widespread buoyancy is the two-wheeler industry. Nominal growth matters for the government too, since tax revenues are also affected by deflation. But the popular mood is determined by profitability and not by economic legerdemain. Prices of oil, steel, copper, aluminium and coal among others have fallen to their lowest levels in many years. But this government claims a healthy GDP growth of 7.63 per cent to 235,908 apartments from a year ago.If inflation were positive, then real GDP growth would have been less than 5. But nominal GDP growth rate is a measure of current market prices.8 per cent as of the quarter ended September, from 4.19 per cent year-on-year to `3. We can tweak data and present them in more optically friendly terms. The news here is not so good. The industry produced a total 14.7 per cent calculated then. To a firm’s revenue, whether from realisations from current sales or projections for future, cash flows and investments; real growth hardly matters


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